If I had been up early this morning I would probably have closed my position for $1-3 of profit after using a mental trailing stop. We're back down at 1.39, and while it is quite impressive that we headed to 1.405 or so early this morning, I wouldn't be surprised if we dipped even lower as the overall US market continues to plunge.
If we can maintain the recent lows of 1.388~ and perhaps create some strength as we move upward, I may hold on for my original target. I would like to see the daily continue to put in a bottom in the upper right arm. If that fails, I would be wise to bail at whatever opportunity I have.
Not much in the way of economic reports this week, which should benefit me. More and more earnings will start to come out, which will make things volatile.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Monday, July 6, 2009
Support Held
Support held and the S&P500 managed to finish positive for the day. The EURUSD managed to bounce back from its lows last night and it's continuing to move upwards, even after the US market close.
I'm still holding. But on a side note, I did some demo trading last night with 10k in play money. I traded only mini contracts, and have decided that if possible it is best to fund whatever forex account you have with a 1:1 ratio between contract size and account size. Having 10k in play money for trading 10k contracts made trading much less stressful. I could take on a small position and should it succeed I could slowly add to it. Or, if it didn't succeed, I could setup certain positions at which to slowly add more, averaging down the size. I would only average if the technicals and fundamentals showed it was desirable.
In any case, the accounts I've been trading are undercapitalized. I can't expect to do well with $27 controlling a 1k contract. Unfortunately, at the moment that is what I have to work with.
I'm still holding. But on a side note, I did some demo trading last night with 10k in play money. I traded only mini contracts, and have decided that if possible it is best to fund whatever forex account you have with a 1:1 ratio between contract size and account size. Having 10k in play money for trading 10k contracts made trading much less stressful. I could take on a small position and should it succeed I could slowly add to it. Or, if it didn't succeed, I could setup certain positions at which to slowly add more, averaging down the size. I would only average if the technicals and fundamentals showed it was desirable.
In any case, the accounts I've been trading are undercapitalized. I can't expect to do well with $27 controlling a 1k contract. Unfortunately, at the moment that is what I have to work with.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
ES
If the EURUSD continues to head in favor of the USD, then tomorrow will definitely be a down day in the S&P. Should it be a down day in the S&P look for 880 to hold. Without that important support holding, I wouldn't doubt a flight to relative safety in the dollar and a lower price on the EURUSD as a consequence.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Leverage and Other Crap
Take a look at the EUR/JPY pair today; it's far below my entry point. If I wasn't leveraged 60:1 + I may have been able to make some bank on it (of course, I don't know what I was thinking with my stop loss). In any case, I found that I had ~$27 in an another account with FX Club. I put on a long trade in the EURUSD pair at 1.4010 and am looking for a retrace to 1.41 for a $9 gain.
My stop is going to be based mostly on fundamentals, as was my entry (although I had trouble entering, as I normally do with new trading programs...I'll get better). My exit is based on technicals. The fundamental reason I'm betting against the dollar is that I think the 9.5% unemployment rate, while better than 9.6% is still pretty bad, not to mention, it is probably going to be eclipsed by the a confounding increase in job losses. In any case, I don't see too much deviation from the previous trend as there's nothing amazingly and/or unexpectedly good in today's numbers.
I will get out when my account drys up, when my profit target is hit, or fundamentals (or technicals, but to a lesser extent) change.
PS: Leverage is around 37:1
My stop is going to be based mostly on fundamentals, as was my entry (although I had trouble entering, as I normally do with new trading programs...I'll get better). My exit is based on technicals. The fundamental reason I'm betting against the dollar is that I think the 9.5% unemployment rate, while better than 9.6% is still pretty bad, not to mention, it is probably going to be eclipsed by the a confounding increase in job losses. In any case, I don't see too much deviation from the previous trend as there's nothing amazingly and/or unexpectedly good in today's numbers.
I will get out when my account drys up, when my profit target is hit, or fundamentals (or technicals, but to a lesser extent) change.
PS: Leverage is around 37:1
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
EURUSD Chart with Important Events and S&P 500 Prices
Here's a chart that I have been trying to get myself to put together for the longest time. I wanted to see how the EURUSD pair reacted in relation to news events (only events that BabyPips.com lists as "red flags" are marked) and S&P500 prices.
I'm still trying to piece together what it all means and will probably miss something given the limited amount of data I utilized, but hopefully I can develop some conclusions. For instance, there is some correlation between the strength of the USD and the quote on the S&P 500 (albeit, many have mentioned this before). A strong dollar, i.e. a low reading on the EURUSD, prohibits the S&P500 from rising without significant impetus.
More soon.
Jui Jitsu Fucked
Anyone watching basically knows that I got jui jitsu fucked in my last trade. I didn't put a stop on it, which was partially because I was negligent and partly because I wanted to risk all $16 and whatever cents. Too bad JPY released a report saying that their country was going to have a longer recession than previously anticipated. You should always be careful around any releases.
Anyway, I have been completely frustrated, mostly with my lack of discipline which has led to such dismal results for me. I could push it onto my huge leverage or my stupid impulsive bullcrap from last week, but even with that, it all boils down to discipline (although a larger bankroll and less stress for money would help; then again, that's why I am in this game).
So, before I add another $25 to my account I need to brush up on my discipline. Unfortunately, without the money to be made, I don't have a ton of motivation to do what I'm doing. I'm going to have to squelch my desire for instant gratification in order to accomplish anything in this volatile market.
Anyway, I have been completely frustrated, mostly with my lack of discipline which has led to such dismal results for me. I could push it onto my huge leverage or my stupid impulsive bullcrap from last week, but even with that, it all boils down to discipline (although a larger bankroll and less stress for money would help; then again, that's why I am in this game).
So, before I add another $25 to my account I need to brush up on my discipline. Unfortunately, without the money to be made, I don't have a ton of motivation to do what I'm doing. I'm going to have to squelch my desire for instant gratification in order to accomplish anything in this volatile market.
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